The Spencer Pratt Phenomenon
Let's meet LA's next mayor
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The city of Los Angeles is in the midst of its mayoral race. There will be a first round vote, essentially like an open primary, this June. If no one gets a majority it goes to a November runoff. It initially looked like it would be a race between current mayor Karen Bass and her challenger, city council member Nitya Ramen. But a former reality TV show star named Spencer Pratt has entered politics and made this a three way race with Pratt as the long shot.
We are going to stick out our neck and predict that he will win the election. Pratt is running a perfect campaign in a city where voters want change. He is running the same plays that catapulted outsiders Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani to their wins. We will look at his political game and his chances to win in a heavily Democratic area. He has a powerful personal narrative, an optimistic message, a great label for his opponent, and the best social media content we have ever seen from a politician. Finally, the process of electing a mayor in Los Angeles gives him an advantage over the incumbent.
Let’s go through the various pieces and we hope readers learn more about political persuasion and messaging in the process. Pratt is blazing a trail that all who are interested in politics should follow.
The Origin Story
Spencer Pratt
Spencer Pratt was born in Los Angeles and has lived and worked in the city his whole life. He was famous on the show The Hills about twenty years ago, and has had a quiet life after that show. But in the January 2025 fires in Los Angeles, he lost his house and the houses of his extended family. His entire neighborhood burned to the ground. The left blamed the event on climate change, the right on city mismanagement.
Since then, he decided to run for mayor to ‘fix things’. This ‘origin story’ for his mayoral run is a powerful tool. Telling voters that you lost everything and it galvanized you to change things is a great hero’s journey tale. Showing that the entire establishment is too corrupt, incompetent and complacent that there was no one in the establishment to push forward to fix things is an indirect indication of just how badly the system has failed. Representatives have failed the little guy so thoroughly that the little guy himself had to step forward.
He is also able to use this event as a perfect example of the city government’s colossal failure. In his telling of events, the city intentionally drained all the reservoirs to put out fires. They ignored repeated warnings. They gave little attention or resources to the Fire Department. The day the fire began, Mayor Bass was in Ghana and unreachable. The deputy mayor was on house arrest for a bomb threat. Key decisions were not able to be made and the fires were not contained. Eventually, several thousand properties in Pacific Palisades and Altadena, two of the nicest areas of Los Angeles, burned down. And since then, there has been no change in city policies about fire. Zero rebuilding has occurred.
This narrative connects viscerally with voters. He has turned what could have been a boring debate about actions by the Fire Department and City Hall into a thrilling story. It underscores the need for change. Pratt has made Mayor Bass a modern day Nero, fiddling while the city burns.
The State of LA
Pratt entering the race comes at a time when Angelenos are not happy campers. A USA Today poll shows two to one disapproval of Mayor Bass’ performance. The population has declined as residents moved to more affordable cities like Austin. Everyone acknowledges that crime has risen and homelessness is out of control. Its signature industry of film and TV production is in a depression. The devastating wildfires of last January burned down thousands of houses and there has been no rebuilding. The city residents are more likely than not looking for some sort of change, either from the left or right. All of this makes Mayor Bass vulnerable to effective attacks.
The Linguistic Killshot – Mayor Bassura
When Donald Trump entered the race for President in 2015, many thought it was a joke. Or a promotional stunt. A real estate developer and former reality TV star was going to run for President? And take out the Bush family and the Clinton family, the two leading political dynasties? He polled at one percent. But during the primary process his numbers rose from 1% to the lead and he secured the nomination.
One of the key techniques he used to win the primary was derisive nicknames for all his competitors. Ted Cruz became “Lying Ted”. Jeb Bush’s campaign imploded after he was called “low energy”. What was viewed as being calm and collected before suddenly was a huge weakness. Trump famously called Hilary Clinton “Crooked Hilary”, and every whiff of scandal around her continually reinforced that image. The late great Scott Adams called these “linguistic killshots”. He noted that they were very intentional and well thought out labels used to push a narrative. [We fully acknowledge that much of this piece is based on the many insights that Adams had on political persuasion, and we are very appreciative of his work on the topic].
Enter Pratt with his own brilliant killshot of calling the mayor “Mayor Bassura”. Many may not know that basura is the Spanish word for trash or garbage. But everyone in bilingual Los Angeles knows it. Linking her name to garbage is simply genius. The name is going to make it hard for any Spanish speaker to take her seriously. That is a huge problem in a city that is 50% Hispanic. There will be an avalanche of videos and memes of taking out the trash. The fact that the streets of LA are currently filthy from open air drug use and 40,000 homeless people and linking it to Bass is another genius step. Voters will be reminded of this label constantly anytime they see trash, garbage or dirty streets and sidewalks- and they will see them a LOT over the next six months as their attention is drawn to it (the spotlight effect). Wanting to clean up this mess is natural and there is only one way to vote.
The Pratt Message
Another great tool in the Pratt campaign is his messaging and positioning. We have transcribed a recent one minute ad to give you a sense of it. It shows a shiny, new version of Los Angeles.
A firefighter: Turns out it’s a lot easier to fight fires when there is water in the reservoirs
A policeman: We’re even allowed to arrest criminals now, with handcuffs and everything
A woman walking her dog: I don’t have to wonder now if I stepped in human sh*t or dog sh*t
A doctor: I only see needles in the hospital now. Who knew it could be this way?
A child: I love going to the park now that it’s not an open drug market
A TV presenter: Who here is ready to admit that common sense actually turned out to be….good?
A woman pushing a baby stroller: I feel safe walking her now. She’s definitely having a Pratt summer.
Pratt: We’re having a Pratt summer!
Final message: LA is worth saving
The message is resoundingly good. It works for several reasons. First, the warm images of the video form a powerful vision of the future. The other candidates have not put forward one as enticing. Secondly, the ad’s message of LA is worth saving connects to residents’ civic pride. There is an indirect call to action too, something that will motivate people who feel like saving LA. The broad cross section of people in the ad implies that this is a universal message and not a divisive one. There is zero whiif of partisanship that would turn people off. There is no connection to hot button national issues that could divide voters. The same point is consistently reinforced – city government has created a mess and we don’t have to live like this. A brighter future is out there. In the debate he put it another way- “I’m the only adult in the room”.
Zohran Mamdani did the same thing to win the mayoral race in New York. We pointed this out last year before anyone else did:
“This video should push him into a tie or the lead in all polls. Then the news cycle will go into a self-reinforcing cycle of pushing his message, exploring who this guy is, and legitimizing his candidacy. Then he’ll squeak out the primary, and win the general election.”
He took the affordability crisis that everyone had identified and offered up a simple remedy: “Freeze the Rent”. It became wildly popular quickly. The other candidates had no clear message and no reason to vote for them. Mamdani steamrolled the Democratic establishment in the primary and won the mayoral race with a large margin.
Pratt con has built his message around common sense and universality. It’s all simple, local and execution based. Scott Adams called this “the high ground” maneuver. It gets you out of the weeds of specific issues and anchors to a powerful principle. He is making the opponents defend and explain the opposite of this common sense. How will Ramen or Bass respond to a new fire? How will they be able to defend why criminals can’t be arrested with handcuffs? What’s their explanation for public needles, drugs and feces? This will back them into a corner and make them defend extremely unpopular positions. Advantage Pratt by a country mile.
Pratt On The Campaign Trail
Pratt has been at this for about a year. Initially, he made few waves in Los Angeles and none outside of it. It took time for people to catch on that he was serious and that he was capable of doing this. Echoes of Trump and Mamdani. He did well in the small but closely connected conservative media of LA. But his message and his candidacy was still not connecting to a broad audience. UCLA polling in April showed Bass with 25%, Ramen at 9% and Pratt at 11%. But 40% of voters were undecided.
A recent debate between the three totally changed that. A local news channel put out a poll asking who won the debate, and Pratt got 88%. Pratt was extremely well prepared and came with excellent data points and anecdotes. He repeatedly addressed the prior actions of the two others while in power and left them fumbling to defend their records. He forced the others to say unpopular things. At one point, Ramen actually called the police overfunded and said that the department should not hire new officers. Pratt also produced a nationally viral moment where he invited Ramen to visit a homeless camp under the Harbor Freeway in downtown LA to implement her policies. He then added “But if she did, she would get stabbed in the neck.” Pratt dunked on her so many times it felt like an LA Lakers game.
Polymarket odds show this post debate dynamic. Ramen’s numbers crashed and she is now solidly third. Pratt’s odds had been in the teens but spiked and have now hit 27%. They will almost certainly continue higher.
Kalshi has him even higher
With this debate, Pratt is going to gain lots of momentum quickly. People who didn’t know him before certainly know him now. Anyone who supported Pratt was thrilled by his performance. He overcame all doubts about professionalism or having the right stuff. He dropped an atom bomb on the incumbent Bass in the sections on the wildfires and he made Ramen look like a dilettante. As we pointed out before, arguing against his hero’s journey and common sense message is extremely difficult. The other two simply have no idea how to stop him. They keep trying to say things are now improving despite voters thinking the opposite. Expect many more moments like Ramen on the police where the candidates shoot themselves in the foot.
Pratt’s social media team will do all the work from here in winning voters over. His X feed is a never ending string of masterpieces. They simply have to be seen to be believed. The other candidates are putting up platitudes on social media while Pratt throws up hilarious AI videos depicting him as Batman taking on the villains of city and state government. Bass is the Joker. He already has twice the X followers of Mayor Bass and will probably end the campaign with twenty times that number.
Process and Timeline
Now Pratt is solidly in second place. With a month to go, he probably won’t reach first pace. But he doesn’t have to. LA’s mayoral race unlike other cities is not a first past the post system. In other words, it’s not a race where who gets the most votes wins. You need to have a majority. If there’s no majority in the first round on June 2nd, a runoff happens in November.
In the 2022 election, Bass got 43% in the first round and her competitor Rick Caruso got 36%. She won the runoff 55% to 45%. Between the polls and her approval rating, we don’t see her getting a majority in the first round this time either. She will probably underperform the 2022 result by a few percentage points.
Then it goes to a runoff between Bass and Pratt. Even if he’s a distant second in June, he’s in the race. It will give him five more months of campaigning. That’s more than enough time to absolutely bury her on social media and in future debates.
Caruso’s message was similar to Pratt and he secured 45% of the vote in the second round. Given the city’s deterioration since then and Pratt’s far better campaign, we think that the final vote will go 55% to 45% Pratt over Bass. There is a small chance he can win in the first round.
Turnout by Pratt supporters will be very high so he will outperform polling. By contrast, Bass has no message and low approval ratings so enthusiasm and turnout will not be high.
The only conceivable way that Pratt loses is if Ramen drops out tomorrow and throws all her support behind Bass. But we don’t think that will happen, we think she is trying to represent the left wing protest vote and will stay in as a show.
A Personal Note
We usually liken our role to the weatherman- we tell you what’s coming, we are not telling you if it is good or bad or right or wrong. Then you can prepare as you see fit. We have laid out our reasons above why we think Pratt can win. We are confident in our prediction.
But we also desperately want him to win. Los Angeles has always been our favorite American city to visit. From the first trip in 2008 where it exceeded our very high expectations and then dozens of return visits. The city is such a fascinating mosaic of people and has an endless number of great neighborhoods to explore. But not in its current state, where downtown is a disaster, safety is a real concern everywhere, and there are countless empty storefronts in areas like Santa Monica and Beverly Hills. It is so sad to see. Let’s hope Pratt can win and begin to restore LA to its former glory. We think many people would agree with us.